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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.